Jennifer Parker’s assessment of Australia’s strategic vulnerability is brutally simple: to defeat us, you don’t need to set foot on our soil; just cut our sea-based supply lines.
Parker speaks from the experience of a naval officer who served in the South China Sea, the Middle East, the Caribbean, and at the heart of maritime operations.
In a wide-ranging interview for Power Lines, Parker offered a blunt assessment of Australia’s maritime readiness in a world where the chance of war is rising.
“Do people understand that Australia is an island nation? That it’s the fifth-largest user of international shipping? We’re wholly dependent on imports and exports. Ninety-nine percent of our international trade passes through the maritime domain. We import 91 percent of our fuel.”
The idea that Australia could be isolated into submission is not new. But Parker is a powerful voice warning just how little we’ve done to prepare for it.
When China’s navy recently circumnavigated Australia and conducted live-fire exercises off our coast—the first such act by a non-ally since World War II—Australia’s Navy couldn’t keep up because our supply ships were in dry dock. Even if they were seaworthy, it’s not enough.
“The Australian Navy currently has two auxuliary replenishment vessels. To refuel, provide fuel and amunition to keep ships at sea longer, so they don’t need to go into a port. What that means is you will not have a tanker available 365 days a year.”
The gaps go further. Mine warfare capability is outdated. Maritime patrols are stretched. And Australia has just 15 Australian-flagged merchant vessels—none large enough to carry much cargo.
“In World War II, we requisitioned local ships to move fuel and supplies. We couldn’t do that now.”
The 2020 Defence Strategic Update removed the assumption that Australia would have ten years of warning before a major conflict. But that urgent message met a complacent response.
“We're five years in now. And we’ve barely progressed on most of the priorities the 2020 structure plan identified.”
Part of the problem, Parker believes, is Australia’s comfortable isolation.
“I don’t think Australians can truly contemplate what conflict in our region looks like. We still imagine it as something that happens far away, something we choose to join or not.”
That complacency also extends to our political leaders, who are not acting with the urgency the circumstances demand.
“I don’t think you can genuinely believe that we’re facing the most serious strategic circumstances since World War II and then fail to invest in defence the way we need to.”
And everyone needs a change of mindset. Parker is calling for a fully integrated national maritime strategy. One that includes:
Submarines and surface combatants
Maritime-focused Army and Air Force roles
Fuel resilience and supply chain continuity
A strategic merchant fleet
A proper Coast Guard
Civil mobilisation plans and national stockpiles
Parker offers a measured response to the mecurial nature of US President Donald Trump and fears that he may damage our most significant alliance.
“We can’t delegate our entire defence to a major power. We need a degree of self-reliance, even within the alliance. We need the capability to conduct certain missions on our own.”
It’s a sobering message. But Parker is no alarmist. Her call is not to panic—but to plan. And that starts with honesty.
“Number one is having a clearer conversation with the Australian people about the threat.”
Above all, she argues, we must start thinking differently. Not like a nation that assumes it will be rescued. Not like a people who believe geography is defence. But like an island nation whose survival depends on what can sail in—and what can sail out.
As Parker says:
“I don’t think conflict is inevitable, but I think it’s increasingly likely…. The echidna needs to swim.”
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