For most of Australia’s modern political history, federal elections have been a contest between two great blocs: the Australian Labor Party and the Coalition of Liberals and Nationals. For decades, these parties commanded more than 80 per cent of the primary vote.
But that era is over — and the numbers show it.
Below is a table charting the House of Representatives primary vote for the ALP, the Coalition, and all Others from 1946 to 2022. The figures, drawn from the Australian Electoral Commission and the Parliamentary Library, show a steep and consistent erosion in support for both major parties.
Federal election primary vote 1946-2022
Here’s what that looks like in the two horse race.
Now let’s add the vote for all other parties and independents.
As they say in politics, the trend is your friend.
The rise of “Others” is the big story of the 21st century. If this trend were a company stock, you’d be selling the majors.
What Does It All Mean?
What began as a slow walk away from the old order at the end of the 20th century — when the third-party vote first hit double figures — turned into a run after 2013. It kicked into another gear post-COVID.
The big parties are exhausted. Their political machines are creaking. They have lost the trust of a large chunk of the population — and that will be hard to recover. Straddling the diversity of values, issues, and communities in the modern electorate is difficult for any single party.
The left flank of both majors has peeled off in shades of green and teal. The 2022 election was a watershed: the major parties recorded their lowest combined primary vote on record. Teals stormed the Liberal heartland. The Greens won lower house seats in Brisbane. One Nation and the UAP didn’t break through, but they drained votes from the right.
Forming government has become harder, with the majors now scrapping for seats on either side of a growing crossbench bloc. A uniform swing of just 1 per cent would cost Labor its majority. The Coalition would need a swing of about 3.5 per cent to be in a position to bargain for power — and more than 5 per cent to win government in its own right.
A swing of that magnitude is rare. It has happened only a handful of times:
1943: Labor, led by John Curtin, secured a 7.9% swing and a wartime landslide.
1969: Under Gough Whitlam, Labor gained a 7.1% swing, setting the stage for 1972.
1975: After Whitlam’s dismissal, Malcolm Fraser's Coalition won with a 7.4% swing.
2007: Kevin Rudd’s Labor won with a 5.4% swing, ending 11 years of Howard government.
Does it feel like that kind of swing is on?
There is one undeniable swing: away from the major parties’ past dominance. The tectonic plates are moving. Australians are looking elsewhere. The trust that once underpinned the two-party system has frayed.
The message to the majors is simple: adapt or be swept aside.
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