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Chris Mitchell's avatar

It will happen to aluminium in Australia.

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Bureaucrat's avatar

Based on my time working with politicians and government bureaucracies, I'm firmly of the belief that the problem runs much deeper than just failed leadership.

MPs don't get elected because of their advanced knowledge of policy - they get elected on the basis of their ability to wheel and deal amongst their own, very small, pool of political hacks, wannabes and zealots. They come in knowing how to say the right thing to the right audience, not how the energy market works. Thus you have politicians of all stripes talking up how 'self evident' net zero is, how it's cheaper than fossil fuels, how it's a moral imperative for society - they're merely reciting the correct mantras to win office and avoid the wrath of equally clueless journalists, activists, and political opponents.

I suspect it has always been this way though, and that's where the experience of the public service should be coming in to save the day. Unfortunately, a combination of corporatisation of senior leadership, a shallowing of expertise in favour of useless 'generalists', and excessive focus on ideological virtue signalling amongst mandarins who can't do anything of consequence means that they are similarly clueless as their political masters. Even if a government were elected promising to continue using fossil fuels for national survival, the ministers would be confronted by a blob of bureaucrats with no true understanding of the issues beyond the surface level, and with decisions driven by ideological considerations rather than reality.

Across the developed world we have most likely seen a vicious circle in which ignorant politicians come in with ignorant ideas, which are reinforced and perpetuated by ignorant bureaucrats - all the while strongly resisting evidence that undermines the ideologies they hope will solve the problems they face. And when it becomes obvious that their beliefs are wrong - as we see in the UK right now - I am absolutely certain that their reaction will be a combination of defensiveness ("How could we see this coming, despite all the evidence right in front of our eyes?") and delusion ("This in no way proves that net zero is a fantasy, it'll definitely work in time and with more money thrown at ideas made up on the run").

And all these people will continue to be utterly shocked when a growing majority of voters abandon them and their worldview for that of populists. Populists that, while not having particularly good solutions to the now intractable problems being faced, are at least correct in who they identify as the culprits.

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