Based on my time working with politicians and government bureaucracies, I'm firmly of the belief that the problem runs much deeper than just failed leadership.
MPs don't get elected because of their advanced knowledge of policy - they get elected on the basis of their ability to wheel and deal amongst their own, very small, pool of political hacks, wannabes and zealots. They come in knowing how to say the right thing to the right audience, not how the energy market works. Thus you have politicians of all stripes talking up how 'self evident' net zero is, how it's cheaper than fossil fuels, how it's a moral imperative for society - they're merely reciting the correct mantras to win office and avoid the wrath of equally clueless journalists, activists, and political opponents.
I suspect it has always been this way though, and that's where the experience of the public service should be coming in to save the day. Unfortunately, a combination of corporatisation of senior leadership, a shallowing of expertise in favour of useless 'generalists', and excessive focus on ideological virtue signalling amongst mandarins who can't do anything of consequence means that they are similarly clueless as their political masters. Even if a government were elected promising to continue using fossil fuels for national survival, the ministers would be confronted by a blob of bureaucrats with no true understanding of the issues beyond the surface level, and with decisions driven by ideological considerations rather than reality.
Across the developed world we have most likely seen a vicious circle in which ignorant politicians come in with ignorant ideas, which are reinforced and perpetuated by ignorant bureaucrats - all the while strongly resisting evidence that undermines the ideologies they hope will solve the problems they face. And when it becomes obvious that their beliefs are wrong - as we see in the UK right now - I am absolutely certain that their reaction will be a combination of defensiveness ("How could we see this coming, despite all the evidence right in front of our eyes?") and delusion ("This in no way proves that net zero is a fantasy, it'll definitely work in time and with more money thrown at ideas made up on the run").
And all these people will continue to be utterly shocked when a growing majority of voters abandon them and their worldview for that of populists. Populists that, while not having particularly good solutions to the now intractable problems being faced, are at least correct in who they identify as the culprits.
It is the same in Australia. There has been no public debate by our elected representatives about our present and future energy needs. The leader of the opposition ducks the issue by saying “ I am not a climate scientist” after at least 15 years of non debate about the most crucial issue facing us. “ We have a problem Houston” as an understatement pales into insignificance. After 15 years Dutto can’t bring himself to say “CO2 is 4 part per million of the atmosphere. 2.5% of that small amount comes from burning coal and oil. The other 97.5% is created naturally mainly coming out of the oceans as they warm up. If the CO2 concentration in the world increased to 5 parts per million the only problem we would have is that every dessert in the world would turn into lush forest.
Yet all we get is “I am not a climate scientist”.
God save us if the Chinese navy sailed down to blockade all our ports. Would we get “I am not a naval strategist” ??
An amazing story, perfectly encapsulated in “Britannia once ruled the waves; now she waives the rules. Consider the logic of what we are witnessing. Britain will use coal, it needs coal — it just won’t use its own.”
Another amazing UK net zero idiocy was converting the Drax power station to burn pelletized wood instead of coal. CO2 emissions per kw hour actually rose just in the combustion, let alone the CO2 emitted in cutting down trees in the US, pelletizing them and transporting them half way around the world. But the EU CO2 accounting rules decreed this was a net zero plus, because wood is biomass and renewable!
Examples such as these suggest we are dealing with a mass hysteria, not simple, random policy mistakes.
I see a similar crunch moment coming in Australia when we are hit by continual blackouts and we realise that energy policy truly has failed.
But unlike keeping a furnace running by emergency recall of parliament, it will take many years to correct course and build affordable and reliable electricity generation
Great article Chris. There’s some killer lines in there:
“Britannia once ruled the waves; now she waives the rules. ”
“China now burns 58 per cent of the world’s coal. A reminder that while Western nations dismantle their industrial base for climate virtue, Beijing powers ahead with thermal realism”
It will happen to aluminium in Australia.
Based on my time working with politicians and government bureaucracies, I'm firmly of the belief that the problem runs much deeper than just failed leadership.
MPs don't get elected because of their advanced knowledge of policy - they get elected on the basis of their ability to wheel and deal amongst their own, very small, pool of political hacks, wannabes and zealots. They come in knowing how to say the right thing to the right audience, not how the energy market works. Thus you have politicians of all stripes talking up how 'self evident' net zero is, how it's cheaper than fossil fuels, how it's a moral imperative for society - they're merely reciting the correct mantras to win office and avoid the wrath of equally clueless journalists, activists, and political opponents.
I suspect it has always been this way though, and that's where the experience of the public service should be coming in to save the day. Unfortunately, a combination of corporatisation of senior leadership, a shallowing of expertise in favour of useless 'generalists', and excessive focus on ideological virtue signalling amongst mandarins who can't do anything of consequence means that they are similarly clueless as their political masters. Even if a government were elected promising to continue using fossil fuels for national survival, the ministers would be confronted by a blob of bureaucrats with no true understanding of the issues beyond the surface level, and with decisions driven by ideological considerations rather than reality.
Across the developed world we have most likely seen a vicious circle in which ignorant politicians come in with ignorant ideas, which are reinforced and perpetuated by ignorant bureaucrats - all the while strongly resisting evidence that undermines the ideologies they hope will solve the problems they face. And when it becomes obvious that their beliefs are wrong - as we see in the UK right now - I am absolutely certain that their reaction will be a combination of defensiveness ("How could we see this coming, despite all the evidence right in front of our eyes?") and delusion ("This in no way proves that net zero is a fantasy, it'll definitely work in time and with more money thrown at ideas made up on the run").
And all these people will continue to be utterly shocked when a growing majority of voters abandon them and their worldview for that of populists. Populists that, while not having particularly good solutions to the now intractable problems being faced, are at least correct in who they identify as the culprits.
It is the same in Australia. There has been no public debate by our elected representatives about our present and future energy needs. The leader of the opposition ducks the issue by saying “ I am not a climate scientist” after at least 15 years of non debate about the most crucial issue facing us. “ We have a problem Houston” as an understatement pales into insignificance. After 15 years Dutto can’t bring himself to say “CO2 is 4 part per million of the atmosphere. 2.5% of that small amount comes from burning coal and oil. The other 97.5% is created naturally mainly coming out of the oceans as they warm up. If the CO2 concentration in the world increased to 5 parts per million the only problem we would have is that every dessert in the world would turn into lush forest.
Yet all we get is “I am not a climate scientist”.
God save us if the Chinese navy sailed down to blockade all our ports. Would we get “I am not a naval strategist” ??
I believe that one shipment to keep the furnaces going was of Australian coal :)
An amazing story, perfectly encapsulated in “Britannia once ruled the waves; now she waives the rules. Consider the logic of what we are witnessing. Britain will use coal, it needs coal — it just won’t use its own.”
Another amazing UK net zero idiocy was converting the Drax power station to burn pelletized wood instead of coal. CO2 emissions per kw hour actually rose just in the combustion, let alone the CO2 emitted in cutting down trees in the US, pelletizing them and transporting them half way around the world. But the EU CO2 accounting rules decreed this was a net zero plus, because wood is biomass and renewable!
Examples such as these suggest we are dealing with a mass hysteria, not simple, random policy mistakes.
I see a similar crunch moment coming in Australia when we are hit by continual blackouts and we realise that energy policy truly has failed.
But unlike keeping a furnace running by emergency recall of parliament, it will take many years to correct course and build affordable and reliable electricity generation
Great article Chris. There’s some killer lines in there:
“Britannia once ruled the waves; now she waives the rules. ”
“China now burns 58 per cent of the world’s coal. A reminder that while Western nations dismantle their industrial base for climate virtue, Beijing powers ahead with thermal realism”